Sat, Nov 28, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 210 | 25 | 424 |
| NSH | 113 | 07 | 09 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42NSHMike FisherPPAssists: James Neal · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 13:09BUFJamie McGinnPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- P2 16:13BUFSam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, David Legwand · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 0:58BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jake McCabe, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 17:47BUFRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Evander Kane · Snap, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:08NSHCraig Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:38BUFSam Reinhart: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:09BUFZemgus Girgensons: Holding2 min
- P2 11:43NSHViktor Arvidsson: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P2 11:43NSHViktor Arvidsson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:49BUFCody Franson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart12:39
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Eichel8:16
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Legwand – McGinn – Schaller3:02
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – Deslauriers – Girgensons5:02
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe3:28
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen15:26
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Franson – Bogosian3:08
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson7:39
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Watson – Sissons5:01
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg12:31
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith9:24
xG 0.05–0.38 (12%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Jones11:41
xG 0.16–0.09 (66%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm15:15
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:57
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).