Thu, Dec 3, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Arizona Coyotes 1, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 19 | 09 | 127 |
| DET | 316 | 114 | 114 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:30DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 19:18DETNiklas KronwallGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 19:36DETGustav NyquistAssists: Darren Helm, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 5:52ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Steve Downie, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 7:18DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 4:28DETDarren HelmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:19ARIMartin Hanzal: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:38ARIMartin Hanzal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:54ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54DETBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:40ARIMikkel Boedker: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:01ARIAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Boedker – Rieder5:47
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair6:28
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Gordon – Downie – Martinook9:42
xG 0.15–0.16 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 1–2
- Vermette – Duclair – Domi6:32
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Grossmann – Murphy15:06
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck12:12
xG 0.27–0.86 (24%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson17:49
xG 0.33–1.43 (19%)attempts 13–21goals 1–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:31
xG 0.37–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Larkin8:49
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Glendening5:21
xG 0.03–0.14 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Pulkkinen2:05
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser13:10
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Green12:17
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Smith – Marchenko16:16
xG 0.74–0.58 (56%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).