Sat, Dec 5, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 115 | 29 | 15 | 429 |
| STL | 115 | 02 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:43TORNazem KadriAssists: Leo Komarov, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 6:11TORBrad BoyesGWGAssists: Roman Polak, Shawn Matthias · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 8:57TORPA ParenteauAssists: Tyler Bozak, Peter Holland · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 6:47TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:15STLSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P1 14:39TORTyler Bozak: Holding2 min
- P2 0:19TORNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:19STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:38STLJori Lehtera: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 14:40TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P3 5:57STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:57TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:49STLTroy Brouwer: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:00STLScott Gomez: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Grabner – Spaling8:02
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:48
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Holland10:43
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Froese10:00
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly13:41
xG 0.77–0.37 (67%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly2:44
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Marincin10:39
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Brouwer – Lehtera10:43
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Gomez – Paajarvi – Fabbri5:45
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Ott – Upshall – Brodziak3:39
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko10:49
xG 0.45–0.81 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Parayko2:57
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson11:11
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko10:45
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).