Tue, Dec 8, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 19 | 07 | 07 | 123 |
| STL | 03 | 29 | 210 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:12ARISteve DownieAssists: Brad Richardson, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 5:08STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:51STLAlexander SteenSHGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 6:53STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Jori Lehtera, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:58STLDavid BackesENAssists: Colton Parayko, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:04STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:52STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:35ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Holding2 min
- P1 19:20ARIBoyd Gordon: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:57ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Holding2 min
- P2 19:00STLVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:19STLKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Vermette – Boedker – Domi2:04
xG 0.05–0.04 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Boedker – Domi9:30
xG 0.20–0.36 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
- Gordon – Jeffrey – Tikhonov7:56
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Richardson – Downie – Martinook11:07
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Dahlbeck11:38
xG 0.47–0.42 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson15:15
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Elliott13:43
xG 0.56–0.81 (41%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Paajarvi – Tarasenko10:42
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri9:20
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:23
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Brouwer11:22
xG 0.59–0.60 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lindbohm12:23
xG 0.50–0.08 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Parayko – Lindbohm2:50
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:57
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).