Fri, Dec 11, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 1, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 110 | 08 | 00 | 128 |
| ARI | 05 | 16 | 09 | 11 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:33MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Zach Parise, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 17:50ARIMikkel BoedkerAssists: Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- OT 0:34ARIMikkel BoedkerPPGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette, Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:56MINCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:07ARIMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:51ARIMichael Stone: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:00ARIViktor Tikhonov: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:10MINMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
- P2 10:25MINNate Prosser: Interference2 min
- P3 8:20ARINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P3 11:24MINNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:53MINChris Porter: Cross checking2 min
- OT 0:16MINZach Parise: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund10:30
xG 0.55–0.25 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine6:17
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter4:34
xG 0.00–0.01 (13%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula5:30
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba6:17
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser3:33
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:30
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTikhonov – Duclair – Domi8:59
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Downie2:28
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder10:33
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Richardson – Cunningham – Martinook4:09
xG 0.08–0.13 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dahlbeck – Murphy2:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Murphy10:58
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck10:51
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).