Sat, Dec 12, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 110 | 01 | 220 |
| TBL | 011 | 010 | 115 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09WSHJay BeagleAssists: Stanislav Galiev · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 11:16WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 8:05TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:05TBLMike Blunden: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:05WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:05TBLMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:06TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:57WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:47WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:55WSHNate Schmidt: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:36WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:33WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Laich – Wilson – Burakovsky4:57
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Galiev9:10
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:22
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov12:47
xG 0.32–0.75 (30%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chorney – Orlov9:19
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Carlson – Schmidt16:55
xG 0.72–0.99 (42%)attempts 17–21goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner18:04
xG 0.23–1.02 (18%)attempts 7–28goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Brown13:37
xG 0.90–0.48 (65%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov5:37
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov3:18
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Namestnikov – Marchessault3:05
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:36
xG 0.91–0.51 (64%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- Carle – Garrison3:45
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:48
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).