Sat, Dec 12, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 01 | 111 | 325 |
| NSH | 112 | 010 | 114 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37COLFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:38COLNick HoldenAssists: Alex Tanguay, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 19:52NSHMiikka SalomakiAssists: Ryan Ellis, Colton Sissons · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 0:58NSHCraig SmithAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 9:36COLAndreas MartinsenGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Francois Beauchemin · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:45COLCarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P1 7:22NSHPaul Gaustad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:33NSHPaul Gaustad: Holding2 min
- P2 3:44NSHMike Ribeiro: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:52COLTyson Barrie: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:52NSHCody Hodgson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:46COLMatt Duchene: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:21COLJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:08COLCody McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:59NSHAustin Watson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:00COLAndreas Martinsen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:06NSHMike Ribeiro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Martinsen8:59
xG 0.83–0.18 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Duchene – Grigorenko – MacKinnon11:27
xG 0.29–0.22 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Mitchell5:40
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 3–12goals 1–1
- McLeod – Skille – Wagner5:35
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson12:25
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Guenin – Gormley7:26
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie11:26
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Watson – Sissons6:12
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Arvidsson7:53
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Salomaki6:30
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Forsberg11:56
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Jones9:04
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Weber – Josi12:22
xG 0.22–0.42 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm13:49
xG 0.43–0.69 (38%)attempts 21–7goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).