Thu, Dec 17, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 19 | 19 | 223 |
| MIN | 15 | 115 | 315 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:27MINMikko KoivuAssists: Thomas Vanek, Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 17:30MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund · Deflected, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 19:51NYRDominic MooreAssists: Emerson Etem, Tanner Glass · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 9:38MINJason PominvillePPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 10:18MINChris PorterAssists: Justin Fontaine, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 16:23NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: J.T. Miller, Jesper Fast · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 17:43MINMikko KoivuAssists: Ryan Carter, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:52NYRDylan McIlrath: Interference2 min
- P2 10:34MINJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:40NYRDan Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20NYRBrady Skjei: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:05MINNino Niederreiter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:10NYRDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:10MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Moore – Glass – Etem9:27
xG 0.39–0.66 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Kreider – Fast – Miller11:40
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes8:10
xG 0.14–0.73 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello13:13
xG 0.11–0.85 (11%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – McIlrath7:43
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Skjei3:40
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Staal – McIlrath3:21
xG 0.04–0.03 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine10:58
xG 0.81–0.29 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Zucker12:31
xG 0.67–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund12:29
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – Porter – Carter7:22
xG 0.04–0.03 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Brodin6:35
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon19:27
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser6:35
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).