Sun, Dec 20, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 015 | 15 | 18 | 228 |
| DET | 013 | 314 | 18 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:56CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:46DETDylan LarkinAssists: Brendan Smith, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–1
- P2 8:31DETBrad RichardsUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:31DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Riley Sheahan · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 17:01CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:30DETJustin AbdelkaderENAssists: Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:11CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P1 12:32CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:17DETLuke Glendening: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:23DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:01DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:42CGYSean Monahan: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:48CGYKris Russell: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:48DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan9:04
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Granlund – Jooris – Bennett5:15
xG 0.15–0.12 (54%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Raymond – Backlund6:08
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Backlund – Gaudreau4:21
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Russell3:06
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie2:53
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:12
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan8:45
xG 0.85–0.37 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm7:50
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin12:00
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Andersson – Jurco – Glendening4:20
xG 0.01–0.09 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Marchenko7:29
xG 0.74–0.18 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Green – Kindl8:08
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green5:49
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).