Mon, Dec 21, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 13 | 411 | 722 |
| COL | 17 | 27 | 114 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27COLJack SkilleAssists: Erik Johnson, Cody McLeod · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:34TORLeo KomarovPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 17:42TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Leo Komarov, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 1:07COLJohn MitchellAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 12:03TORLeo KomarovPPAssists: Peter Holland, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 18:43COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 0:49TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 6:47TORTyler BozakGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 10:40TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Jake Gardiner, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–3
- P3 16:20TORTyler BozakENAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.76 xG7–3
- P3 17:31COLJack SkilleAssists: Zach Redmond, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.05 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:58TORJake Gardiner: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:59COLFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:50COLBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:07TORBrad Boyes: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:55COLAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:06TORMatt Hunwick: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:01TORLeo Komarov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:52
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 3–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Froese8:28
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland10:19
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri11:28
xG 0.39–0.81 (32%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Gardiner2:48
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner12:35
xG 0.46–0.38 (54%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Polak – Marincin7:34
xG 0.02–0.05 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Skille – Grigorenko6:28
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 2–0
- Duchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:53
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Mitchell7:48
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Martinsen11:01
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie2:13
xG 0.49–0.06 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Holden – Redmond4:39
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie13:54
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).