Tue, Dec 29, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Chicago Blackhawks 7, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 35 | 217 | 27 | 729 |
| ARI | 212 | 014 | 311 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:21CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:36CHIArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 10:18ARIShane DoanAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 12:07ARIZbynek MichalekAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Craig Cunningham · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P1 19:08CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 2:00CHIAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P2 13:48CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Andrew Shaw, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 5:04CHIAndrew DesjardinsGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG6–2
- P3 7:17ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–3
- P3 13:03ARIConnor MurphyAssists: Tobias Rieder, Michael Stone · Slap, 0.02 xG6–4
- P3 18:21CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.62 xG7–4
- P3 19:32ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Tobias Rieder · Slap, 0.07 xG7–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:31ARIAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:54ARIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:13CHITeuvo Teravainen: Interference2 min
- P1 14:46CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:55ARIZbynek Michalek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:00CHIDennis Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:08ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 9:28CHIDennis Rasmussen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:59CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:00CHIBryan Bickell: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:36CHIMarian Hossa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:53CHIAndrew Desjardins: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Shaw11:12
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen9:01
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bickell – Garbutt – Rasmussen5:22
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin9:16
xG 0.33–0.69 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson13:01
xG 0.47–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Rozsival – Gustafsson11:30
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk13:01
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Boedker – Domi7:29
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Cunningham – Rieder – Dauphin4:13
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Tikhonov – Duclair – Domi3:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Chipchura2:53
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson2:32
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy14:49
xG 0.67–0.70 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck10:30
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).