Thu, Dec 31, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 118 | 110 | 233 |
| BUF | 017 | 010 | 116 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:35NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 1:07NYINikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P3 11:18BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:20NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P1 9:40NYIAnders Lee: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:46NYIFrans Nielsen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:37BUFJosh Gorges: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:32BUFBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:45NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Kulemin11:52
xG 0.73–0.25 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:20
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:28
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Nelson – Strome7:51
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – de Haan13:46
xG 1.04–0.10 (91%)attempts 26–10goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Leddy17:41
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey11:05
xG 0.21–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Girgensons – Eichel10:20
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Legwand – Foligno – Deslauriers4:05
xG 0.07–0.25 (22%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Reinhart9:45
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Moulson – Kane – Larsson9:35
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Franson – Weber8:29
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe20:52
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen14:51
xG 0.53–0.84 (39%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).