Sat, Jan 2, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 18 | 28 | 423 |
| BUF | 011 | 213 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59DETBrad RichardsAssists: Riley Sheahan, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:59DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Mike Green, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 14:26BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:27BUFJack EichelAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 2:27DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 8:58BUFSam ReinhartPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–3
- P3 17:10DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Mike Green, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:00DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:08DETTomas Nosek: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:36BUFMike Weber: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:01BUFCody Franson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:45DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:25DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:36DETMike Green: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Sheahan – Larkin9:05
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Helm – Glendening – Nosek2:13
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Andersson – Glendening – Nosek4:42
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:06
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith14:02
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Marchenko – DeKeyser15:44
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson10:42
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Foligno – Larsson2:39
xG 0.47–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Moulson – Kane – Larsson6:47
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Reinhart10:59
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Girgensons2:14
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe16:29
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Franson – Weber10:53
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen14:32
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).