Sat, Jan 2, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
St. Louis Blues 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 111 | 018 | 140 |
| TOR | 011 | 18 | 314 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:28STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: David Backes, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:33TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 3:15TORPeter HollandPPGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 14:05TORNazem KadriAssists: Michael Grabner, Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 19:00TORMichael GrabnerENAssists: Matt Hunwick · Backhand, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:13STLVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:08TORDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:42STLPatrik Berglund: Holding2 min
- P3 2:51STLKyle Brodziak: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:37STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:02STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:49TORJake Gardiner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Berglund – Paajarvi10:37
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Lehtera – Fabbri9:29
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko13:46
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Reaves – Jaskin6:22
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko13:24
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:24
xG 0.82–0.64 (56%)attempts 15–25goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson12:34
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Grabner – Kadri12:02
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Arcobello6:07
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:23
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland10:49
xG 0.13–0.82 (14%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hunwick – Rielly17:15
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 16–23goals 1–0
- Polak – Marincin12:25
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner14:32
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).