Tue, Jan 5, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Dallas Stars 2, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 08 | 19 | 223 |
| NYR | 214 | 16 | 39 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56NYRDerek StepanAssists: Rick Nash, Jayson Megna · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:50DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jason Spezza, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 14:08NYRKeith YandleUnassisted · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 17:23NYRDerick BrassardGWGAssists: J.T. Miller · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 4:55NYRDerek StepanSHAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–4
- P3 7:50NYRViktor StalbergAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–5
- P3 8:40DALAntoine RousselAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 13:38NYRJayson MegnaAssists: Rick Nash, Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:19DALJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:16DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:57NYRDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:39NYRDan Boyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:51DALJason Spezza: Holding2 min
- P3 4:12NYRDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Roussel – Eakin4:39
xG 0.34–0.12 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Roussel – Eakin4:40
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Eaves5:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin11:05
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Jokipakka9:37
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–2
- Oduya – Demers17:29
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg12:17
xG 0.62–1.41 (31%)attempts 14–18goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Megna8:46
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller13:44
xG 0.66–0.19 (77%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Lindberg – Hayes – Fast9:45
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg8:22
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal13:15
xG 1.09–0.66 (62%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Girardi – McDonagh14:24
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle13:19
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).