Fri, Jan 8, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 29 | 05 | 322 |
| COL | 214 | 15 | 28 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:50COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P1 17:45COLCody McLeodAssists: Jack Skille · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 2:45NSHRyan EllisAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 7:40COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 16:37NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 11:00COLTyson BarriePPGWGAssists: Nick Holden, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:58COLJack SkilleENAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:07COLCody McLeod: Charging2 min · PPG
- P1 5:40NSHAnthony Bitetto: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:50NSHBarret Jackman: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:52COLCarl Soderberg: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 14:36NSHCraig Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:09NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:04NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:09COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:03NSHMiikka Salomaki: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Forsberg6:04
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Fisher – Smith – Salomaki6:10
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Johansen6:20
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Jarnkrok2:31
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Bitetto10:08
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm13:50
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi13:45
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Skille8:41
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon10:40
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:14
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Iginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen6:34
xG 0.06–0.34 (16%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Redmond10:01
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Bodnarchuk14:36
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Holden – Barrie15:39
xG 0.62–0.69 (48%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).