Tue, Jan 12, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 112 | 18 | 01 | 328 |
| ARI | 06 | 19 | 213 | 13 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:43EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 6:13EDMJustin SchultzPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 12:37ARIMax DomiAssists: Michael Stone, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 1:02EDMBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 3:53ARIMax DomiPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 6:54ARIMax DomiPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 4:51ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Michael Stone · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:04ARIAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:17ARIKlas Dahlbeck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:37EDMTeddy Purcell: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:41ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:07EDMRob Klinkhammer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:19EDMEric Gryba: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 4:30EDMTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins3:27
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Draisaitl11:17
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Purcell – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:16
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Klinkhammer2:54
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne13:22
xG 0.47–0.29 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Davidson – Hunt2:27
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Nurse18:34
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Boedker – Domi5:57
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi6:37
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Tikhonov7:25
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair5:29
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Dahlbeck11:52
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Stone14:03
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy22:15
xG 0.40–0.73 (35%)attempts 15–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).