Thu, Jan 14, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 115 | 38 | 428 |
| STL | 06 | 05 | 113 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:49CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Andrej Nestrasil · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 3:22CARBrett PescePPGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 7:13CARBrock McGinnAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 7:33STLJori LehteraAssists: Joel Edmundson · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 16:21CARRiley NashAssists: Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:36CARRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:47STLRobby Fabbri: Holding2 min
- P1 16:33CARNoah Hanifin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:33STLScottie Upshall: Embellishment2 min
- P2 5:23CARBrock McGinn: Interference2 min
- P2 15:18CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:04STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:37STLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:18CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Lindholm10:07
xG 1.19–0.13 (90%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Nash – Malone4:27
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom9:16
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – McGinn9:03
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk13:44
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Pesce7:08
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Slavin – Hanifin9:04
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Lehtera – Fabbri2:56
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri4:40
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Tarasenko2:52
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Upshall – Backes – Berglund5:29
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson4:31
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Parayko2:00
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Parayko2:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).