Mon, Jan 18, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 18 | 13 | 01 | 1 | 417 |
| SJS | 011 | 19 | 29 | 06 | 0 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:12OTTMax McCormickAssists: Cody Ceci, Chris Neil · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:08OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 4:16SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 2:47SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joel Ward, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 7:54SJSMatt NietoAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Chris Tierney · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:29OTTZack SmithUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 2. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 3. SJS Joonas Donskoi stopped
- 4. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 5. SJS Logan Couture stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:57SJSJoel Ward: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:45OTTErik Karlsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:29SJSBrent Burns: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- OT 3:08OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Michalek – Ryan – Zibanejad15:54
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Turris – Smith – Stone5:43
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – McCormick5:47
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone6:14
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 1–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch2:13
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Claesson3:48
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson16:54
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl15:09
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Nieto – Tierney2:33
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Couture5:58
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Couture – Wingels – Donskoi6:55
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun17:23
xG 1.07–0.27 (80%)attempts 28–5goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns16:39
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Dillon2:10
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).