Fri, Jan 22, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 3, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 015 | 318 | 345 |
| BUF | 08 | 09 | 02 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 12:01DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Luke Glendening, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 17:09DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 19:11DETLuke GlendeningENAssists: Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:42BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:24DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:33BUFCal O'Reilly: Interference2 min
- P3 7:19BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Pulkkinen – Glendening5:55
xG 0.95–0.26 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco9:18
xG 0.67–0.14 (82%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin14:00
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Nyquist9:38
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith12:35
xG 1.41–0.40 (78%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko14:59
xG 0.90–0.29 (76%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser16:40
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson11:58
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Moulson – O'Reilly – Kane9:45
xG 0.46–0.61 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – McGinn – Eichel10:32
xG 0.10–0.28 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Eichel3:07
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Pysyk10:42
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Ristolainen21:09
xG 0.50–1.02 (33%)attempts 16–28goals 0–1
- Franson – McCabe13:41
xG 0.45–1.26 (26%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).