Tue, Feb 2, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 25 | 211 | 17 | 523 |
| PIT | 316 | 216 | 112 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01PITMatt CullenAssists: Carl Hagelin, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 10:54PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 14:50OTTMark StoneAssists: Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 16:17PITChris KunitzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 19:29OTTChris WidemanAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 3:01OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Erik Karlsson, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P2 3:25OTTCody CeciAssists: Zack Smith, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–3
- P2 6:10PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- P2 16:45PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–5
- P3 6:40PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–6
- P3 15:50OTTDave DziurzynskiAssists: Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar · Snap, 0.03 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P2 2:27OTTJared Cowen: Holding2 min
- P2 2:27PITTom Kuhnhackl: Embellishment2 min
- P2 5:27OTTDave Dziurzynski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:26OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:08PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P3 6:47OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P3 8:12OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:41OTTMika Zibanejad: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 18:29PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Smith – Stone – Pageau11:32
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:24
xG 0.66–0.96 (41%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
- Neil – McCormick – Prince5:19
xG 0.14–0.43 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Dziurzynski – Lazar7:31
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Cowen – Wideman7:48
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Borowiecki12:43
xG 0.75–0.72 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Wiercioch4:09
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist12:29
xG 1.20–0.01 (99%)attempts 20–2goals 3–0
- Cullen – Porter – Wilson5:56
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl4:40
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fehr – Rust – Kuhnhackl7:14
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Dumoulin14:35
xG 1.10–0.11 (91%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta15:56
xG 1.14–0.15 (88%)attempts 22–6goals 3–1
- Lovejoy – Pouliot11:42
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).