Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 08 | 111 | 127 |
| OTT | 310 | 112 | 23 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19OTTZack SmithAssists: Marc Methot, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:21OTTMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 7:38OTTBobby RyanAssists: Chris Wideman, Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 7:08OTTCurtis LazarAssists: Erik Karlsson, Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.26 xG0–4
- P3 0:39OTTMark StoneAssists: Erik Karlsson, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 2:27OTTCurtis LazarAssists: Alex Chiasson, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–6
- P3 3:25TORPA ParenteauAssists: Daniel Winnik, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:13OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:00OTTMika Zibanejad: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 17:04OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:24OTTErik Karlsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:24TORFrank Corrado: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:14TORJoffrey Lupul: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:38OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:38TORPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:40OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P3 10:50TORPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:34TORRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Winnik – Holland9:43
xG 0.66–0.15 (81%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Boyes – Grabner – Spaling3:17
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lupul – Komarov – Kadri5:50
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Winnik – Bozak2:04
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Corrado2:06
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Polak2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick3:48
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Dzingel – Lazar4:07
xG 0.52–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–3goals 2–0
- Neil – Dzingel – Lazar2:24
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman10:03
xG 0.29–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Pageau8:39
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci10:52
xG 0.60–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson13:45
xG 1.01–0.52 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 4–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci2:56
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).