Sun, Feb 14, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 5, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 36 | 16 | 110 | 522 |
| DET | 29 | 318 | 18 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:08BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 2:44DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 2:58BOSZach TrotmanUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 12:59BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: David Krejci, Jimmy Hayes · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 14:46DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
- P2 3:13DETDarren HelmAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Alexey Marchenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 6:38DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Brad Richards, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 11:01DETDarren HelmAssists: Alexey Marchenko, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P2 11:23BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Ryan Spooner · Slap, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 0:38BOSJoonas KemppainenSHAssists: Brad Marchand, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–5
- P3 7:37DETDanny DeKeyserGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.01 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:20BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P1 9:31DETPetr Mrazek: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 14:24BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:26BOSKevan Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:19DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:19BOSColin Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:41BOSLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:52DETBrad Richards: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:48BOSZac Rinaldo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Spooner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Krejci – Hayes10:21
xG 0.33–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro4:52
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Pastrnak – Kemppainen13:17
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Marchand – Spooner – Connolly10:42
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- Seidenberg – Miller11:53
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Miller2:22
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug14:52
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader14:25
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Richards – Tatar – Larkin10:16
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Jurco – Athanasiou3:57
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Sheahan – Glendening10:40
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarchenko – Ouellet13:53
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Green – Smith10:29
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:33
xG 0.43–0.37 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).