Thu, Feb 18, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 27 | 27 | 420 |
| TOR | 113 | 011 | 113 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58TORPA ParenteauAssists: Martin Marincin, Viktor Loov · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:56NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Keith Yandle, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:24NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 17:30TORColin GreeningAssists: Brad Boyes, Mark Arcobello · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–2
- P3 18:29NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:40NYRDerick BrassardENAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:39NYROscar Lindberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:58TORLeo Komarov: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P1 18:58NYRKevin Klein: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:32TORNick Spaling: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:59NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:19NYROscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:38NYRMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:21NYRKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00NYRDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TORRich Clune: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Moore – Paille – Glass6:30
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Fast9:08
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller10:41
xG 0.16–0.67 (20%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes7:16
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Girardi3:52
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi4:41
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle2:05
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Greening – Arcobello10:03
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri5:04
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Grabner – Kadri – Holland4:04
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Winnik – Spaling – Holland6:04
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly3:01
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Corrado – Rielly8:17
xG 0.72–0.43 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
- Marincin – Loov5:33
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).