Tue, Feb 23, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Nashville Predators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 212 | 09 | 326 |
| TOR | 010 | 07 | 210 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 3:40NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 5:36NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–0
- P3 2:23TORJosh LeivoPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Peter Holland · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 17:37TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Peter Holland, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:11TORPeter Holland: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:44NSHAnthony Bitetto: Interference2 min
- P2 6:17NSHPaul Gaustad: Holding2 min
- P2 15:58TORJosh Leivo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:31NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:03NSHAustin Watson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arcobello won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:38
xG 0.88–0.15 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson9:04
xG 0.18–0.18 (49%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Watson – Salomaki8:05
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen10:41
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:14
xG 0.92–0.17 (84%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Granberg14:03
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Jackman – Bitetto11:50
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Winnik – Arcobello2:41
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Grabner – Kadri – Leipsic9:20
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Winnik – Holland7:13
xG 0.16–0.15 (53%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Clune – Froese – Leivo5:35
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:11
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Marincin – Rielly14:38
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Corrado – Loov2:50
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).