Wed, Feb 24, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 4, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 214 | 210 | 010 | 434 |
| WSH | 010 | 115 | 211 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 17:47MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–0
- P2 1:54MTLTomas FleischmannAssists: Paul Byron, Mark Barberio · Slap, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 5:32WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Marcus Johansson, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 12:36MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 12:24WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Brooks Orpik, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 17:07WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Stanislav Galiev, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:17WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:17WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:19MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 6:16WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:12WSHBrooks Orpik: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 15:39MTLLars Eller: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:32WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:32MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:05MTLTorrey Mitchell: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Weise – Galchenyuk10:57
xG 1.07–0.78 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 2–2
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Andrighetto9:28
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:47
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Byron – de la Rose9:08
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Barberio10:55
xG 0.69–0.19 (79%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Markov – Subban15:42
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 24–18goals 1–2
- Emelin – Pateryn17:54
xG 0.56–1.26 (31%)attempts 16–24goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky4:04
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Richards – Wilson2:56
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson2:58
xG 0.07–0.01 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Laich – Richards – Galiev4:02
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson5:01
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner13:48
xG 0.65–0.50 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Orlov – Schmidt4:39
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).