Thu, Feb 25, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 16 | 011 | 014 | 131 |
| TOR | 115 | 15 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12TORBrad BoyesPPAssists: Colin Greening, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.40 xG0–1
- P1 16:01CARJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Eric Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:33TORJosh LeivoGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, Viktor Loov · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 15:59TORPA ParenteauAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:56CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:53CARJohn-Michael Liles: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:04TORRich Clune: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:09TORJosh Leivo: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:59CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 19:47TORPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:20CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:20TORPA Parenteau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:43TORDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:10CARVictor Rask: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:00CARJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:00TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Terry – Nash2:00
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Di Giuseppe8:43
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom4:38
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Nash – Nordstrom2:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin15:48
xG 0.84–0.74 (53%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Liles – Slavin2:03
xG 0.06–0.02 (81%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Liles – Pesce11:10
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Greening – Holland2:01
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Arcobello – Leivo7:53
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Boyes – Greening – Froese4:33
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Grabner – Kadri – Leipsic11:07
xG 0.39–0.44 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorrado – Loov7:18
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Marincin – Rielly14:45
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Percy12:32
xG 0.12–0.64 (16%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).