Sat, Feb 27, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 014 | 010 | 132 |
| MTL | 18 | 119 | 29 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:29TORMatt HunwickAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 7:01MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 10:39MTLDevante Smith-PellyGWGAssists: Michael McCarron, Alexei Emelin · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 6:23MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 8:07MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Greg Pateryn, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:17MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:02TORDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:29TORBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:04TORJake Gardiner: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:22MTLP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:14TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Grabner – Kadri3:58
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Froese – Leipsic3:09
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Leipsic8:03
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Winnik – Greening – Holland2:30
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly13:25
xG 0.82–0.34 (71%)attempts 16–13goals 1–2
- Gardiner – Marincin13:46
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Corrado – Percy8:49
xG 0.06–0.87 (6%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Smith-Pelly – McCarron9:25
xG 0.75–0.06 (92%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:28
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Eller – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto13:13
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Byron – Danault – de la Rose11:38
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Barberio14:19
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Emelin – Pateryn13:33
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Markov – Subban16:11
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).