Sun, Feb 28, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 214 | 211 | 05 | 430 |
| BOS | 111 | 011 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01BOSKevan MillerAssists: Joonas Kemppainen, Landon Ferraro · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 11:19TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 14:39TBLRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 8:18TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 10:04TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:49BOSZac Rinaldo: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 11:51TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00TBLJT Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:44TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 8:11BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 8:29TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:29BOSZdeno Chara: Embellishment2 min
- P2 10:04BOSBrad Marchand: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 10:50TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:52TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:32BOSAdam McQuaid: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:56TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Spooner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Brown – Paquette7:41
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos10:07
xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Boyle – Namestnikov – Marchessault7:26
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:07
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman6:51
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Coburn – Hedman7:17
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov4:40
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak10:56
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner11:00
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly8:57
xG 0.04–0.38 (10%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Ferraro – Kemppainen7:15
xG 0.03–0.39 (7%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug2:00
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller8:39
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Morrow5:08
xG 0.02–0.09 (15%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).