Thu, Mar 3, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 216 | 19 | 329 |
| BUF | 08 | 314 | 313 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:18CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 10:27BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Brian Gionta, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 15:57BUFMarcus FolignoSHAssists: Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 16:12CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 17:14BUFNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 3:56CGYSean MonahanAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 9:31BUFJohan LarssonGWGAssists: Brian Gionta, Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 12:46BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 18:29BUFEvander KaneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:46CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:01CGYJosh Jooris: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:36CGYGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P1 16:40BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P1 18:32BUFMark Pysyk: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00CGYDougie Hamilton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:32CGYJakub Nakladal: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:44BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:35CGYJoe Colborne: Interference2 min
- P3 10:28CGYGarnet Hathaway: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:58CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Bouma – Hathaway5:13
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Jooris5:07
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Gaudreau – Bennett7:58
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Frolik – Ferland – Bennett2:47
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Hamilton4:13
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Engelland – Hamilton5:35
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Jokipakka – Hamilton3:24
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Reinhart – Eichel10:28
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson9:10
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Legwand – Moulson – Catenacci4:12
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Deslauriers – Girgensons6:50
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe14:19
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Gorges – McCabe2:21
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen12:04
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).