Thu, Mar 3, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 211 | 29 | 429 |
| OTT | 010 | 011 | 113 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:14TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: JT Brown, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 18:33TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson · Backhand, 0.29 xG2–0
- P3 5:24OTTMarc MethotAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 18:14TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 19:46TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:29TBLRyan Callahan: Holding2 min
- P2 7:57OTTScott Gomez: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:09OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:09TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:09TBLErik Condra: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:19TBLAnton Stralman: Holding2 min
- P3 0:59TBLJason Garrison: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov9:28
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Boyle – Condra – Namestnikov5:03
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Brown – Paquette11:24
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos10:01
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman12:57
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Stralman – Nesterov2:26
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov10:03
xG 0.42–0.62 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad11:37
xG 1.11–0.17 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Pageau11:30
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Gomez – Chiasson – Dzingel6:55
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Paul – Lazar9:06
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ceci3:17
xG 0.59–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wideman5:46
xG 0.56–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson6:39
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).