Sat, Mar 5, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 05 | 112 | 03 | 2 | 330 |
| BUF | 04 | 213 | 011 | 04 | 1 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16MINDavid JonesAssists: Ryan Carter, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 5:15BUFJohan LarssonPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–1
- P2 6:38BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Cal O'Reilly · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 14:19MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel scored
- 2. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 3. BUF Evander Kane stopped
- 4. MIN Charlie Coyle scored
- 5. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 6. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 7. BUF Marcus Foligno stopped
- 8. MIN Jason Pominville scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:45BUFJack Eichel: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:45MINZach Parise: Interference2 min
- P2 4:23MINNino Niederreiter: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 13:45BUFJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle10:08
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Zucker – Granlund7:58
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter6:34
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Stoll – Jones – Carter5:17
xG 0.03–0.05 (36%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon12:29
xG 0.46–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin2:20
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba9:52
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- O'Reilly – Deslauriers – Girgensons5:38
xG 0.04–0.03 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Catenacci4:37
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel8:14
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson10:42
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pysyk8:06
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe12:52
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen13:11
xG 0.05–0.41 (10%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).