Sat, Mar 5, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 015 | 19 | 416 | 540 |
| COL | 19 | 113 | 014 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27COLBlake ComeauAssists: Carl Soderberg, Shawn Matthias · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 15:30NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 19:14COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 1:02NSHJames NealAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 10:16NSHMike FisherGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–2
- P3 18:22NSHShea WeberENAssists: Filip Forsberg, Austin Watson · Slap, 0.67 xG4–2
- P3 19:05NSHMiikka SalomakiENAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:42COLFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:55COLGabriel Landeskog: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:39NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:39COLJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:39NSHRyan Johansen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:57COLCarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P2 10:13NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:13COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:20NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:28NSHMike Fisher: Holding2 min
- P3 19:47COLCody McLeod: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Salomaki – Arvidsson3:42
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson4:09
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Watson – Salomaki5:28
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen10:27
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm17:10
xG 0.95–0.84 (53%)attempts 19–21goals 2–1
- Granberg – Bitetto9:20
xG 0.26–0.45 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi17:12
xG 0.41–0.90 (31%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Duchene – Grigorenko12:01
xG 0.82–0.05 (94%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Matthias7:52
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Boedker – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:39
xG 0.71–0.85 (45%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille5:07
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie15:23
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Johnson14:07
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Bodnarchuk – Bigras8:48
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).