Sat, Mar 5, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 010 | 212 | 331 |
| TOR | 114 | 116 | 013 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06OTTBobby RyanUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 9:27TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:10TORNikita SoshnikovPPAssists: Brendan Leipsic · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 2:56OTTMarc MethotAssists: Alex Chiasson, Ryan Dzingel · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 17:45OTTZack SmithGWGAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:22TORColin Greening: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:22OTTDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:07OTTChris Wideman: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:24OTTZack Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 14:22TORFrank Corrado: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:34OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau12:51
xG 1.02–0.43 (70%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad7:43
xG 0.46–0.21 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Neil – Paul – Lazar7:18
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Gomez – Chiasson – Dzingel8:04
xG 0.22–0.50 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson12:44
xG 0.93–0.44 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson5:26
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci2:07
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Soshnikov12:12
xG 0.87–0.59 (60%)attempts 26–11goals 0–1
- Laich – Greening – Smith10:16
xG 0.34–0.40 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Kapanen8:36
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Grabner – Holland – Leipsic8:45
xG 0.30–0.68 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Carrick10:24
xG 0.72–0.10 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Marincin4:00
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Rielly12:50
xG 0.69–0.68 (50%)attempts 25–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).