Sat, Mar 5, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
58%
8%
26%
TOR winsOTT wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against OTT's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Smith–Stone–Pageau | Gomez–Chiasson–Dzingel | Ryan–Hoffman–Zibanejad | Neil–Paul–Lazar | Gomez–Ryan–Dzingel | Chiasson–Zibanejad–Paul | Neil–Zibanejad–Paul | Ryan–Dzingel–Zibanejad | Methot–Karlsson | Phaneuf–Ceci | Wiercioch–Wideman | Phaneuf–Karlsson | Karlsson–Wiercioch | Methot–Ceci | Methot–Wideman | Wiercioch–Ceci | Phaneuf–Wideman | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Komarov–Kadri–Soshnikov | 6:460.21–0.40 | 1:110.07–0.00 | 2:030.02–0.33 | 2:350.07–0.08 | 3:020.51–0.16 | 1:160.02–0.00 | 1:470.14–0.03 | 0:410.03–0.00 | |||||||||
| Laich–Greening–Smith | 3:580.08–0.29 | 2:270.22–0.06 | 2:180.00–0.06 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 2:080.01–0.10 | 3:050.28–0.03 | 1:590.00–0.02 | 1:220.00–0.00 | 0:300.04–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.03 | |||||||
| Grabner–Holland–Leipsic | 5:480.15–0.41 | 1:280.12–0.12 | 3:220.14–0.06 | 1:420.14–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.14 | 0:420.00–0.33 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 0:510.02–0.12 | 0:360.00–0.03 | ||||||||
| Hyman–Nylander–Kapanen | 0:470.00–0.26 | 3:260.16–0.04 | 3:150.02–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.02 | 3:470.16–0.24 | 1:050.00–0.03 | 2:030.08–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.06 | |||||||||
| Grabner–Holland–Soshnikov | 0:360.00–0.06 | 0:410.00–0.06 | |||||||||||||||
| Hunwick–Rielly | 2:030.16–0.18 | 6:410.21–0.46 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:460.05–0.14 | 2:240.13–0.08 | 3:490.36–0.16 | 0:460.02–0.04 | 1:440.04–0.08 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.03 | |||||||
| Gardiner–Corrado | 3:220.08–0.41 | 3:400.34–0.13 | 3:470.02–0.03 | 4:250.18–0.28 | 2:210.22–0.03 | 2:200.02–0.14 | 1:050.00–0.00 | 0:460.02–0.12 | |||||||||
| Marincin–Carrick | 4:540.08–0.03 | 3:080.16–0.05 | 1:070.06–0.02 | 3:200.05–0.03 | 3:150.19–0.03 | 0:550.30–0.02 | 0:470.12–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.03 | ||||||||
| Gardiner–Marincin | 1:500.11–0.17 | 0:370.10–0.01 | 0:490.01–0.07 | 0:320.02–0.00 | 0:540.03–0.00 | 1:240.18–0.07 | |||||||||||
| Gardiner–Rielly | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:340.03–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.33 | 0:360.03–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Hunwick–Marincin | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Rielly–Carrick | 0:430.07–0.00 | 0:510.17–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Hunwick–Gardiner | 0:300.00–0.02 | ||||||||||||||||
| Hunwick–Carrick | 0:390.00–0.06 | 0:450.00–0.06 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TOROTTFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Erik KarlssonOTT | 27 | 29:20 | 1:05 | 2:25 | 7 | 4 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 29 | 24:01 | 0:50 | 2:15 | 3 | 6 |
 Jake GardinerTOR | 28 | 23:55 | 0:51 | 1:27 | 4 | 3 |
 Dion PhaneufOTT | 29 | 21:55 | 0:45 | 1:31 | 5 | 3 |
 Matt HunwickTOR | 30 | 20:42 | 0:41 | 2:18 | 2 | 7 |
 Mark StoneOTT | 25 | 20:27 | 0:49 | 1:23 | 6 | 3 |
 Marc MethotOTT | 29 | 20:25 | 0:42 | 1:03 | 3 | 5 |
 Nazem KadriTOR | 26 | 19:40 | 0:45 | 2:09 | 2 | 6 |
 Martin MarincinTOR | 25 | 19:36 | 0:47 | 1:59 | 4 | 6 |
 Nikita SoshnikovTOR | 28 | 19:01 | 0:41 | 2:15 | 3 | 6 |
 Leo KomarovTOR | 28 | 18:27 | 0:40 | 1:29 | 3 | 6 |
 Cody CeciOTT | 28 | 18:05 | 0:39 | 1:05 | 1 | 6 |
 Mika ZibanejadOTT | 27 | 17:59 | 0:40 | 1:10 | 8 | 3 |
 Jean-Gabriel PageauOTT | 24 | 17:43 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 4 | 3 |
 Zack SmithOTT | 24 | 17:15 | 0:43 | 1:23 | 6 | 2 |
 Peter HollandTOR | 19 | 16:42 | 0:53 | 1:49 | 3 | 4 |
 William NylanderTOR | 26 | 15:43 | 0:36 | 1:47 | 9 | 0 |
 Patrick WierciochOTT | 19 | 15:26 | 0:49 | 1:44 | 5 | 2 |
 Zach HymanTOR | 24 | 14:59 | 0:37 | 1:12 | 6 | 0 |
 Brooks LaichTOR | 24 | 14:27 | 0:36 | 1:22 | 5 | 5 |
 Ryan DzingelOTT | 22 | 14:27 | 0:39 | 1:20 | 3 | 2 |
 Bobby RyanOTT | 20 | 14:23 | 0:43 | 1:38 | 5 | 2 |
 Ben SmithTOR | 25 | 14:08 | 0:34 | 1:22 | 2 | 8 |
 Michael GrabnerTOR | 18 | 14:01 | 0:47 | 1:49 | 2 | 5 |
 Chris WidemanOTT | 19 | 13:52 | 0:44 | 1:15 | 4 | 2 |
 Alex ChiassonOTT | 22 | 13:51 | 0:38 | 0:54 | 4 | 2 |
 Scott GomezOTT | 20 | 13:33 | 0:41 | 1:08 | 2 | 2 |
 Colin GreeningTOR | 20 | 13:30 | 0:41 | 1:44 | 2 | 4 |
 Curtis LazarOTT | 22 | 13:28 | 0:37 | 1:02 | 2 | 5 |
 Connor CarrickTOR | 20 | 13:25 | 0:40 | 1:44 | 4 | 3 |
 Frank CorradoTOR | 18 | 13:22 | 0:45 | 1:18 | 1 | 2 |
 Kasperi KapanenTOR | 22 | 12:53 | 0:35 | 1:05 | 7 | 0 |
 Nick PaulOTT | 18 | 12:28 | 0:42 | 1:05 | 3 | 6 |
 Brendan LeipsicTOR | 17 | 11:35 | 0:41 | 1:09 | 2 | 4 |
 Mike HoffmanOTT | 15 | 10:45 | 0:43 | 1:22 | 6 | 1 |
 Chris NeilOTT | 16 | 9:52 | 0:37 | 1:03 | 2 | 4 |