Thu, Mar 10, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 06 | 09 | 225 |
| DET | 012 | 213 | 110 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:23WPGMarko DanoAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 16:31WPGTyler MyersAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 6:40DETDylan LarkinAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 12:25DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 15:24DETJustin AbdelkaderGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:19WPGBlake Wheeler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:02WPGMark Scheifele: Holding2 min
- P1 9:11DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:19WPGChris Thorburn: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:19DETLuke Glendening: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:13DETGustav Nyquist: Holding2 min
- P2 9:27WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:27DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:16DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:09WPGChris Thorburn: Holding2 min
- P3 17:31WPGAdam Lowry: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:15DETHenrik Zetterberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Scheifele – Dano3:37
xG 0.16–0.10 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Perreault – Burmistrov – Dano5:47
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Perreault – Burmistrov4:48
xG 0.23–0.23 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Lipon – Copp4:11
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Trouba13:09
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Postma – Chiarot6:33
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Trouba5:40
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Helm – Glendening5:57
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin6:38
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Athanasiou4:07
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Nyquist – Tatar2:11
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson12:02
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser12:47
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Green – Smith10:56
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).