Thu, Mar 10, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 2, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 111 | 08 | 228 |
| FLA | 110 | 315 | 26 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:37OTTZack SmithAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:52FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:29OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Zack Smith, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 9:32FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 9:46FLAJonathan HuberdeauUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–4
- P3 4:26FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 10:59FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.18 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:49OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:49FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:40FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:03FLAGarrett Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:45OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:01OTTMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Puempel – Lazar8:52
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Smith – Stone – Pageau12:10
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad2:58
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad6:55
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKostka – Wiercioch11:16
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci2:16
xG 0.01–0.02 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:13
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 2–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:21
xG 1.08–0.48 (69%)attempts 12–15goals 2–2
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck15:24
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Wilson9:04
xG 0.42–0.49 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Bjugstad – Shaw9:51
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Ekblad15:13
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Kindl – Petrovic11:39
xG 0.84–0.68 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson16:12
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).