Sat, Mar 12, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 010 | 14 | 04 | 225 |
| DET | 015 | 09 | 214 | 15 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:11NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 4:28DETDarren HelmAssists: Luke Glendening, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 15:33NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–1
- P3 19:28DETBrad RichardsPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 3:03DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:27DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P2 0:37NYRViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:36DETGustav Nyquist: Interference2 min
- P2 3:49NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:21NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:21DETBrendan Smith: Elbowing2 min
- P3 7:52NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:18DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 17:55NYREric Staal: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:21
xG 1.14–0.49 (70%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Hayes – Fast – Miller9:03
xG 0.21–0.54 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Lindberg5:20
xG 0.02–0.39 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Staal – Stalberg10:52
xG 0.32–0.92 (26%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal7:33
xG 1.07–0.46 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Klein – Yandle12:18
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle2:04
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Helm – Glendening7:38
xG 1.26–0.29 (81%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Athanasiou4:57
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Nyquist – Sheahan2:26
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Nyquist – Tatar2:20
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser12:38
xG 1.06–0.12 (90%)attempts 21–3goals 0–0
- Green – Smith10:32
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Green2:01
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).