Sat, Mar 12, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 011 | 011 | 029 |
| OTT | 17 | 16 | 24 | 417 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40OTTMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:19OTTCody CeciAssists: Mark Stone, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 1:21OTTZack SmithAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 15:21OTTMark StoneAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:08OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:14TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:44OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:10TORMartin Marincin: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:01OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:47OTTChris Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:34OTTAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:23TORPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Grabner – Smith8:43
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Greening – Holland8:10
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Hyman – Nylander11:16
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Soshnikov10:29
xG 0.23–0.57 (29%)attempts 11–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Valiev5:56
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carrick7:28
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Corrado7:39
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau9:36
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 10–15goals 3–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad6:23
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Neil – Paul – Lazar10:33
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gomez – Ryan – Hoffman2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kostka – Wideman10:43
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
- Kostka – Karlsson2:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:34
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).