Mon, Mar 21, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Calgary Flames 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 03 | 215 | 07 | 225 |
| TOR | 17 | 18 | 311 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:27TORPA ParenteauAssists: William Nylander · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 10:25CGYMatt StajanSHAssists: Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:26TORZach HymanAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 17:32CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 0:29TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:39TORColin GreeningENAssists: Ben Smith, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
- P3 19:33TORJosh LeivoENAssists: Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:43CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:22TORPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:17TORMorgan Rielly: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:22CGYMichael Frolik: Interference2 min
- P2 9:39CGYJosh Jooris: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:54CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:54CGYJosh Jooris: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:54TORNazem Kadri: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:05CGYJyrki Jokipakka: Interference2 min
- P3 11:25CGYBrandon Bollig: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bollig – Hathaway7:24
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Jooris7:36
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Colborne – Ferland – Bennett5:10
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett2:35
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton11:58
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Brodie – Jokipakka9:49
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Jokipakka – Nakladal2:07
xG 0.13–0.23 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Hyman – Nylander10:16
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 18–7goals 3–0
- Leivo – Brown – Gauthier6:43
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Michalek – Grabner – Kadri10:19
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Laich – Greening – Smith9:04
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick12:43
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Corrado – Valiev9:48
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Marincin2:51
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).