Tue, Mar 22, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 08 | 29 | 325 |
| CAR | 08 | 112 | 17 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:22BUFCarlo ColaiacovoAssists: Mark Pysyk, Marcus Foligno · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 12:10CARChris TerryAssists: Noah Hanifin, Riley Nash · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 13:40CARJoakim NordstromAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 16:11BUFEvander KaneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 17:11BUFJohan LarssonGWGAssists: Brian Gionta · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P2 5:13BUFMark Pysyk: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:51BUFZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:06CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:11CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:33BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:33CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:33BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:33CARJeff Skinner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:36CARBrad Malone: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:36CARBrad Malone: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Kane – Deslauriers9:28
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson10:54
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 5–11goals 2–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel9:16
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Legwand – Moulson – O'Reilly4:47
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe19:46
xG 1.42–0.65 (69%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen16:35
xG 0.59–0.89 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Colaiacovo – Pysyk10:12
xG 0.06–0.62 (9%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Nash – Ryan9:12
xG 0.73–0.06 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- McClement – Gerbe – Malone4:37
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Rask – Di Giuseppe2:21
xG 0.01–0.09 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe8:01
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin16:35
xG 1.05–0.40 (72%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Jordan – Murphy15:00
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hanifin13:28
xG 0.59–1.15 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).