Wed, Mar 23, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 114 | 118 | 241 |
| NYR | 28 | 19 | 27 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:39NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Henrik Lundqvist · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 5:26NYRDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Kevin Klein, Jesper Fast · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 9:34BOSLee StempniakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 6:32NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 12:06BOSFrank VatranoAssists: Loui Eriksson, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 17:07NYRRick NashENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:53BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:35NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:35BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 7:00BOSJimmy Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:23BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:03BOSJimmy Hayes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:01BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 12:55NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:47NYRDan Boyle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Stempniak – Marchand11:47
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak7:42
xG 0.27–0.11 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Vatrano2:12
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Ferraro – Acciari4:02
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Miller13:19
xG 0.76–0.11 (87%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Krug2:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug10:16
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Brassard – Fast8:22
xG 0.06–0.09 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg8:43
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Kreider – Hayes10:10
xG 0.26–0.40 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Miller9:10
xG 0.47–0.84 (36%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Staal15:32
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
- Klein – McDonagh13:09
xG 0.50–0.97 (34%)attempts 8–21goals 2–1
- Yandle – Girardi14:35
xG 0.04–0.60 (7%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).