Mon, Mar 28, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 013 | 014 | 07 | 034 |
| TBL | 210 | 14 | 04 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34TBLMike BlundenGWGAssists: Erik Condra, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:29TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jason Garrison · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 6:38TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Erik Condra · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:29TBLErik Condra: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:19TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:25TORConnor Carrick: Interference2 min
- P2 3:34TORMilan Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:14TBLNikita Nesterov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:34TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:53TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:13TBLBraydon Coburn: Elbowing2 min
- P3 6:08TBLBrian Boyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:10TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:55TBLMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55TBLBrian Boyle: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:55TORFrank Corrado: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLCedric Paquette: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bozak – Brown8:11
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
- Parenteau – Hyman – Nylander10:08
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Laich – Greening – Smith6:43
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Grabner – Kadri9:01
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick13:57
xG 1.02–0.34 (75%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Marincin – Rielly11:28
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Corrado – Valiev11:13
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Blunden – Condra3:36
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Condra – Killorn – Stamkos4:50
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Marchessault9:51
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette2:35
xG 0.04–0.11 (29%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr10:26
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Garrison – Nesterov8:34
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Coburn – Carle12:29
xG 0.29–0.63 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).