Mon, Mar 28, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 25 | 210 | 521 |
| ARI | 05 | 211 | 08 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53CGYSam BennettAssists: Micheal Ferland, Jakub Nakladal · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 6:08ARIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 13:42ARIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 16:41CGYSam BennettAssists: Joe Colborne, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 19:31CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 11:13CGYTJ BrodiePPAssists: Sean Monahan, Hunter Shinkaruk · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 18:18CGYJoe ColborneENAssists: Sean Monahan, Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P2 0:04CGYEmile Poirier: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:42CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:19ARIKevin Connauton: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 6:03ARIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P3 9:57ARIMax Domi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:11CGYJoe Colborne: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:29CGYMatt Stajan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:29ARIJiri Sekac: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:29CGYLance Bouma: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:29CGYDeryk Engelland: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColborne – Ferland – Bennett9:50
xG 0.73–0.35 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Poirier10:14
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig10:11
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Grant – Shinkaruk – Monahan10:55
xG 0.23–0.63 (26%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Giordano16:38
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie2:12
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brodie – Hamilton16:02
xG 0.66–0.73 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Martinook – Plotnikov10:28
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Vermette – Tikhonov7:00
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Vermette – Sekac5:24
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Richardson – Rieder – Sekac3:48
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Connauton17:58
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Dahlbeck11:45
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy18:57
xG 0.33–1.04 (24%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).