Tue, Mar 29, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 311 | 023 | 342 |
| MTL | 28 | 09 | 210 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Joel Hanley, Sven Andrighetto · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:25MTLPaul ByronAssists: Alexei Emelin, Alex Galchenyuk · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 12:33DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:17DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 16:20DETMike GreenPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 6:34MTLSven AndrighettoPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 11:18MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:06DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P1 14:22DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P1 18:07DETAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:44MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference5 min · PPG
- P2 8:44MTLAlexei Emelin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:44DETJustin Abdelkader: Instigator2 min
- P2 8:44DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:44DETJustin Abdelkader: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:18MTLMike Brown: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:18MTLMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:23DETLuke Glendening: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:20DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:20MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Glendening – Athanasiou3:37
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Mantha4:37
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin6:16
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan5:07
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Green8:33
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Green2:12
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Marchenko11:50
xG 0.65–0.72 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Mitchell – Eller10:56
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Byron – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk8:06
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Brown – McCarron – de la Rose5:42
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Danault – Andrighetto8:52
xG 0.25–0.63 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin17:10
xG 1.21–0.65 (65%)attempts 20–26goals 2–0
- Dietz – Hanley8:04
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu13:25
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).