Sat, Apr 2, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 212 | 010 | 14 | 326 |
| TOR | 08 | 114 | 112 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48DETBrad RichardsPPAssists: Mike Green, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 17:19DETMike GreenAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Luke Glendening · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 2:44TORColin GreeningAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 3:59DETKyle QuinceyGWGAssists: Darren Helm, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:53TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Nazem Kadri, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:33TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:21DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:24DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 17:33TORTJ Brennan: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:21DETJonathan Ericsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:21TORPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:24DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin6:40
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Mantha2:48
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm9:55
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan8:19
xG 0.42–0.66 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser15:09
xG 0.83–0.33 (71%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Ericsson – DeKeyser2:57
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Marchenko13:16
xG 0.35–0.68 (34%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Froese – Gauthier8:12
xG 0.69–0.26 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Greening – Nylander9:17
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Bozak – Lindberg – Kapanen9:30
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Boyes – Grabner – Kadri10:36
xG 0.55–0.95 (37%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Rielly13:28
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Brennan – Campbell10:02
xG 0.65–0.75 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Corrado13:59
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).