Thu, Apr 7, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 17 | 25 | 422 |
| NJD | 03 | 111 | 18 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45TBLErik CondraAssists: Andrej Sustr, Brian Boyle · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:16NJDSergey KalininAssists: John Moore, Stephen Gionta · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 14:45TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:50TBLJonathan DrouinGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 9:26NJDSergey KalininAssists: Bobby Farnham, Stephen Gionta · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:13TBLValtteri FilppulaENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:37TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:10NJDJoseph Blandisi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:16NJDBobby Farnham: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:16TBLMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:16NJDJoseph Blandisi: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:16TBLMike Blunden: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:58NJDJoseph Blandisi: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07NJDJoseph Blandisi: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Josefson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov14:41
xG 0.33–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Drouin12:26
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Filppula – Brown – Paquette9:25
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Boyle – Blunden – Condra9:16
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Garrison3:25
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Taormina – Sustr2:03
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Sustr2:10
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Farnham – Kalinin7:08
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 2–0
- Elias – Josefson – Boucher8:24
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Smith-Pelly – Sislo – Blandisi6:04
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Henrique – Palmieri13:52
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson13:56
xG 0.68–0.33 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Schlemko – Mozik13:41
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson19:10
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 5–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).