Thu, Apr 7, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 3, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 211 | 18 | 08 | 327 |
| CGY | 218 | 312 | 213 | 743 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:47CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Jakub Nakladal, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 6:23VANNikita TryamkinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:36VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Chris Tanev, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 18:08CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Micheal Ferland, Jyrki Jokipakka · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 1:18CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matt Stajan, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 6:54VANEmerson EtemAssists: Ben Hutton, Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 11:54CGYJoe ColbornePPGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–4
- P2 19:08CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Matt Stajan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 15:08CGYDeryk EngellandAssists: Matt Stajan, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
- P3 16:23CGYSam BennettAssists: Josh Jooris · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:04VANJannik Hansen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 9:25CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:06CGYSean Monahan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:08CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:08VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:30CGYHunter Shinkaruk: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:52VANAndrey Pedan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:11VANRonalds Kenins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:29CGYDrew Shore: Broken stick2 min
- P3 6:58CGYJyrki Jokipakka: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Etem – Horvat5:24
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Burrows – Etem – Horvat2:27
xG 0.10–0.05 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows6:04
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Etem – Granlund2:15
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Tryamkin7:59
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Tanev9:40
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Bartkowski – Tryamkin2:34
xG 0.11–0.35 (25%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBollig – Jooris – Bennett2:53
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Ferland – Shinkaruk – Monahan2:33
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Shinkaruk – Monahan3:09
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Stajan – Backlund – Colborne5:56
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Nakladal11:03
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Jokipakka – Hamilton12:27
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Giordano – Brodie13:04
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).