Thu, Oct 13, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 17 | 29 | 424 |
| BUF | 06 | 015 | 110 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 3:21MTLTorrey MitchellGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
- P3 0:35BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:43MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Shea Weber, Alex Galchenyuk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 11:36MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Daniel Carr, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:24BUFJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:12BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:26MTLDaniel Carr: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:51MTLNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:23MTLShea Weber: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:18MTLAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:18MTLAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:18BUFJosh Gorges: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:28MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00MTLAndrew Shaw: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kane won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Byron – Danault7:37
xG 0.62–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Radulov – Lehkonen10:19
xG 0.37–0.11 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Shaw – Carr8:42
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:37
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Pateryn14:56
xG 1.10–0.28 (79%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Weber – Emelin2:10
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Beaulieu15:27
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 3–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Girgensons – Reinhart2:47
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart7:23
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Foligno – Larsson8:38
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Gionta – Grant – Deslauriers6:31
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Franson – Bogosian2:06
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe14:12
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen14:07
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).