Thu, Oct 13, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 117 | 04 | 114 | 235 |
| DAL | 11 | 19 | 210 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40DALStephen JohnsAssists: Patrick Eaves, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:09ANAAndrew CoglianoSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 2:43DALLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Devin Shore, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 1:01ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:23DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Adam Cracknell, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
- P3 9:37DALAdam CracknellAssists: Radek Faksa, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:32DALJamie Benn: Delaying game2 min
- P1 9:05DALJordie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:05DALJordie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:14ANANick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:57DALPatrick Sharp: Kneeing2 min
- P2 9:15ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:40ANAJared Boll: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 1:59ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:07DALDan Hamhuis: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ritchie13:16
xG 0.71–0.54 (57%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Boll – Wagner – Garbutt2:37
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Vermette – Garbutt – Sorensen2:13
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:33
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Larsson7:42
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson11:23
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Vatanen – Larsson2:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – Roussel – Faksa6:03
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin9:06
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Hudler7:25
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Korpikoski – Ritchie – Shore4:37
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Benn7:59
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Oduya – Johns10:41
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Klingberg8:54
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).